Only playoff scoring statistics from playoffs using the current format (1990 - present) were used to determine which offense or defense is better. Yards, turnovers, and other statistics do not matter if they do not lead to points. Only playoff statistics were used because it assumes that both teams were facing the best competion.
The Facts
1. The NFC has won 10 out of the last 18 Super Bowls. The advantage goes to the Arizona Cardinals.
2. While the overall record of Super Bowl underdogs is 5-13; in Tampa, FL the underdogs are 1-1 since 1990. If all Super Bowl history is examined, the underdogs are 2-1 in Tampa. Statistically it is more likely that an upset will happen in Tampa. The advantage goes to the Arizona Cardinals.
3. Since 1990 the best offense has won the Super Bowl 13 times and 12 times the best defense has won. Of those teams, 8 possessed both the best offense and the best defense. The team with the best offense/worst defense has won 5 times and the worst offense/best defense has won 4 times. In Super Bowl XVIII the best offense is the Arizona Cardinals and the best defense is the Pittsburgh Steelers. The advantage goes to the Arizona Cardinals.
4. The Arizona average of 26.7 points per game is up 5 points per game in the playoffs. The Arizona defense is allowing 6 fewer points than their season average of 26.6. The Pittsburgh average of 21.7 points per game is up 5 points per game in the playoffs. The Pittsburg defense is allowing 5 more points than their season average of 13.9. When comparing this year’s playoffs statistics with regular season statistics the Arizona Cardinals are improving on both offense and defense. On the other hand, the Pittsburgh Steelers are improving on offense, but the defense is worse. The Arizona Cardinals are the team that is peaking. The advantage goes to the Arizona Cardinals.
5. In the NFL, quarterback play reigns supreme. Kurt Warner is a two time MVP of the league. He carried the St. Louis Rams to two Super Bowl appearances and a Super Bowl win. Ben Roethlisberger is a good quarterback with his own Super Bowl win, but he has always relied on the ground game and the defense to win games. If the Pittsburgh defense is unable to control Kurt Warner, Ben Roethlisberger is not going to be able to keep up. The advantage goes to the Arizona Cardinals.
6. The John Gruden factor. John Gruden successfully coached the underdog Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a resounding victory over his prior team, the Oakland Raiders, in Super Bowl XXXVII. The Cardinals head coach, Ken Whisenhunt was previously the offensive coordinator for Pittsburgh. He has been inside the Pittsburgh organization. He knows the Steelers’ personnel and schemes as well as they do. The advantage goes to the Arizona Cardinals.
The Final Score
Arizona Cardinals 34
Pittsburgh Steelers 21
 |
