Well, after the Tampa Bay Rays reached the World Series, anything became possible.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have been installed as seven-point favorites over the underdog Cardinals, and that line has not wavered much since it was originally announced. That means the betting has been about even for both teams. But there has been a growing sentiment that Arizona could shock the world and pull off one of the greatest upsets in Super Bowl history if the Cards play their cards right.
Before you jump on the Kurt Warner bandwagon and gamble your kids’ college funds on the Cardinals, though, let’s disprove a couple myths permeating around during Super Bowl week:
Myth No. 1 – Arizona will win because head coach Ken Whisenhunt was Pittsburgh’s former offensive coordinator and knows their players’ strengths and weaknesses better than anyone.
Which team in the NFL has more knowledge about how Pittsburgh’s offense and defense is currently constructed than the Baltimore Ravens? Baltimore certainly knows as much if not more about Pitt’s offensive system than Whisenhunt does, and you could make the argument that Baltimore has a better team than Arizona has. And what did playing the Steelers three times this season get the Ravens? Three losses.
Myth No. 2 – Arizona’s improved defense can hold Pittsburgh to 20 points.
Arizona had the 19th-ranked defense in the NFL during the regular season and was thoroughly embarrassed on several occasions, most notably when the Cards allowed 56 points to old man Brett Favre and the New York Jets, 47 to the Tom Brady-less New England Patriots and 48 to the Philadelphia Eagles on Thanksgiving night. Arizona could have been torched for another 48 by Philly in the NFC Championship if Donovan McNabb did not have the accuracy of Joey Harrington during the first half. McNabb finished that playoff game with 375 yards and three touchdown passes despite missing more open receivers than Stevie Wonder would have.
Yes, Arizona did a great job bottling up Atlanta’s Michael Turner in the wild card round, but remember that they were facing a rookie quarterback appearing in his first playoff game, so they could stack eight guys in the box. And while the Cardinals’ ballhawking should be applauded in their divisional playoff win against the Carolina Panthers, quarterback Jake Delhomme deserves more credit for creating the six turnovers that won Arizona the contest than the defense does.
Do you think Arizona can overload against Willie Parker and Pittsburgh’s running game with Ben Roethlisberger quarterbacking? Do you think "Big Ben" will throw five interceptions? And when receivers Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes are breaking free against Arizona’s below-average cornerbacks, can you imagine Roethlisberger missing them time after time for an entire half? If you answered "no" to all three questions, than there is no way Pittsburgh will score fewer than 27 points, let alone 20.
There is no doubt that Pittsburgh will win the game outright, but will they cover the seven-point spread? The Steelers do like to fool around like a bunch of wacky teenagers when they get leads. The AFC Championship game against Baltimore is a perfect example. Pittsburgh dominated the game from start to finish, but there was still a moment when the score was 16-14 in the fourth quarter and Baltimore had the ball with a realistic chance to win.
But here is what football fans know – Pittsburgh is the better team by far, and Arizona has a penchant for not showing up for games. Just ask the Jets, Patriots and Eagles. After a half of Larry Fitzgerald being blanketed, Kurt Warner being blitzed and Roethlisberger going interception-less, Arizona could play one of those just-happy-to-be-here 42-10 Super Bowls that used to occur annually during the 90s.
Prediction – Pittsburgh 30, Arizona 17.
