Rookie Head Coaches Are the New Trend in the NFL
Coordinators Getting Lead Jobs Over Experienced Vetrans
This offseason, there has been a total of ten head coaching vacancies. Out of those ten, the Chiefs’ job is the only one that is currently vacant since the Raiders have yet to decide if they will retain interim coach Tom Cable or look elsewhere. As of right now, nine teams will enter 2009 with new leaders, six of whom have never been a head coach in the NFL before.
The Trend Began Under the RadarSince the end of the 2007 season, the amount of prominent coaches that remain jobless is astounding. The ever growing list of available candidates with career winning records looking for work include Brian Billick, Jon Gruden, Mike Shanahan, and Bill Cowher (left after 2006).
Why is it that six of the nine head coaches that have been hired are people who are doing so for the first time? This recent trend may be due to the early success of first time head coaches like Mike Tomlin, Tony Sparano, Mike Smith, and John Harbaugh, all of whom won ten or more games and made the playoffs each in their first year.
What Happens Next
It appears as if teams are actually making it a point to hire young coordinators this time around. The four aforementioned experienced coaches have combined for five Super Bowl victories, with at least one win each; still, these guys are out of work.
The situation that will skew the results of future hires appears to quickly becoming more imminent. With teams that had won eight or more games last season already hiring first time coaches, it seems clear that franchises that need a lot more work might be the only ones willing to go the route of experience. Even if another job opens up, the odds are that it will be for a struggling team, where a veteran might still struggle and confirm this rapidly spreading mindset that a coach only gets one stint in the NFL, and then is replaceable. This group will continue to sit through next season, and most likely will be fighting the same battles next year.
While the rest of America struggles to get or even keep a job, it always seemed like professional sports operated on a different standard. Billions of dollars are invested into each sport, and franchises are run like multimillion-dollar corporations with a guaranteed immense annual income thanks to television deals, ticket sales, and personal seat licenses for most teams with new stadiums. It is easily argued that coaching means more in football than any other sport, so it makes these hirings of rookie head coaches even riskier.
The League Makes its Push for Youth
As easy as it is to argue that experienced managers are a safer bet to run an organization, the statistics of recent franchises tend to prove otherwise. Even more indicting than winning percentage is the fact that 67% of teams went the route of coordinators. Unfortunately, it may take a few years for these rookies to struggle as a whole and allow a shift back to hiring formerly successful coaches, but at that point, it might be too late.
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