Predictions for the 2009 AFC South Division
Colts Peyton Manning for MVP, Houston Texans Not Contenders
Sep 10, 2009 Derek J Griebenow
Forget about the fact the Colts have a new head coach; Jim Caldwell has been an assistant under Tony Dungy since 2002. Besides, any Colts fan will say that Peyton Manning is the coach!
This is how the AFC South may look for the 2009 season:
Indianapolis Colts 11-5 +/- 1 win
Tennessee Titans 9-7 +/- 1 win
Houston Texans 6-10 +/- 2 wins
Jacksonville Jaguars 5-11 +/- 2 wins
The Indianapolis Colts should regain their status as AFC South champions after falling to the Titans in 2008. New coach or not, they still have Manning.
2009 Colts Bottom Line
Since Peyton Manning was drafted by the Colts in 1998, they have won six division titles; five straight from 2003-07.
The Colts defense ranked 6th vs the pass last season and 11th overall. If they can find a way to stop the run (24th); there's no doubt they'll win the division again. The Colts added size to their line in the draft to complement the pass rushers lead by Dwight Freeney (10.5 sacks).
The secondary is lead by safety Bob Sanders, if cornerback Marlin Jackson is healthy (knee) and Kelvin Hayden continues to improve; this secondary can hold its own. Even if Sanders remains fragile, they now are four deep at receiver with Antoine Bethea, Melvin Bullitt, and Matt Giordano.
The Colts are deep at running back as well. Second year player Mike Hart returns after an injury to be called upon to relieve Joseph Addai, as will rookie Donald Brown. The key for the offense will be Addai who must regain his 2006-07 form (2,153 rushing yards in '06-07 and 23 total TD, just 544 yards, 7 TD in '08). His success will allow Manning a better chance of guiding the Colts to the playoffs.
The Titans were on a tear to begin 2008 10-0; that is until Favre came to Tennessee and beat them 34-13. They will have their hands full early on in 2009 as they face the Steelers (in Pittsburgh), Colts, and Patriots(at Foxboro) in the first six weeks.
2009 Titans Bottom Line
The Titans will continue to receive great things from their running back by committee in Chris Johnson (1,228 yards, 9 TD), LenDale White (15 TD), and rookie Javon Ringer. It's the quarterback and receivers they must worry about.
Quarterback Kerry Collins is a fifteen year veteran that can't move anywhere outside the pocket and is a hit away from retirement (see Kurt Warner). The offensive line, lead by center Kevin Mawae, allowed just eight sacks last year; repeating that will by almost impossible.
As for the receivers, if a tight end that caught 58 passes for two TD is worthy of your franchise tag...enough said. Besides, Justin Gage and Nate Washinton are hardly receiving threats. The Titans better hope rookie Kenny Britt is a superstar.
The secondary is strong with playmakers Cortland Finnegan and Michael Griffin, but the rest of the defense is aging fast. The Titans will have a hard time ranking in the top 10 (7th in '08) in overall defense with Albert Haynesworth now in Washington.
The Texans have looked like playoff contenders in the past couple seasons; don't fall for it again this year. They must rectify their QB position first and then maybe.
2009 Texans Bottom Line
MATT SCHAUB MUST STAY HEALTHY for his team to stand a chance. Afterall, Dan Orvlosky is his backup...exactly. Schaub has missed five games in each of his two seasons in Texas and has not thrown more than 15 TD in any of them. He can be a quality starter when healthy; but another injury and it's time to move on. (MEMO: Schaub suffered sprained ankle in final pre-season game).
One high note for the Texans (and not that they have the NFL's best receiver in Andre Johnson), is that for the first time in history, they started all the same offensive lineman all season in '08; which helped rookie Steve Slaton most.
Slaton led all rookies with 1,282 yards and added 10 TD to solidify the starting running back job. He will be counted on to produce again, especially if the passing game flounders.
The Texans defense ranked only 22nd overall a year ago, but are on the rise lead by DE Mario Williams (26 sacks last two seasons). DT Amobi Okoye will have to step up and bust up some running plays to help the rest of the line - and defense improve.
The Jaguars, whether they want to admit it or not, are in phase one of rebuild mode. On the flipside, they could actually surprise all and compete for the division.
2009 Jaguars Bottom Line
Quarterback David Garrard threw 18 TD against only 3 INT in 2007 to force Jacksonville to release Byron Leftwitch. In 2008 they got 15 Td and 13 INT. The team thought it was the recievers, cut them all, and signed the aging Torry Holt. Garrard must bounce back in 2009 for the Jags to contend for anything.
Another problem is that 5'7” RB Maurice Jones-Drew now has to carry the full-time rushing duties with Fred Taylor in New England. Jones ran for 2,533 yards in three years behind Taylor, but being the man is a different story; especially with no depth behind him.
The Jaguars drafted DE Derrick Harvey and Quintin Groves in the first two rounds of the 2008 draft but got just six sacks total from them last season. These guys will have to rush the passer more for this defense to stand a chance even inside their own division.
If the defense can get a pass rush, Garrard can rebound, and Drew can caryy the ground game; maybe the Jaguars have a chance. If not, phase two.
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