Patriots Prohibitive Favorite
Battered Chargers Won't Keep Up to Explosive New England Offense
Jan 18, 2008
Prohibitive favorite New England will advance to a fourth trip to the Super Bowl in the past seven years unless Mother Nature grounds the high-flying Patriots passing game.
The Patriots are favored by 14 points against San Diego for Sunday’s AFC Championship showdown in Massachusetts, where the game-time temperature is expected to be around 25 degrees with a wind chill of 13.
It’s amazing how much things can change in the NFL during a 12-month stretch.
New England “upset” the top-seeded and 14-2 Chargers last year, 24-21, in the divisional round, creating an atmosphere of bad feelings between the teams, especially coming from San Diego’s direction.
LaDainian Tomlinson rushed for 123 yards on 23 carries in last year’s playoff contest, but Philip Rivers completed only 14 of 32 passes for 230 yards. He also fumbled after a hit from Pats linebacker Mike Vrabel that set up the deciding field goal as New England rallied from a 21-13 deficit during a 3:26 span late in the fourth quarter. Pats quarterback Tom Brady three a career playoff high three interceptions but was cool as usual when it counted.
Then the Patriots circled their wagons around Coach Bill Belichick, responding to spygate with a 24-0 halftime lead en route to a 38-14 pasting of the Chargers in Week Two this season.
That sets the stage for Sunday’s game, which starts at 3 p.m. local time.
Chargers offense vs. Patriots defense
Rivers and Tomlinson are coming off knee injuries from San Diego’s huge win at Indianapolis. The Chargers need their running game to improve drastically over its past two playoff wins, not only to control the clock and keep the ball away from Brady and crew, but to establish their play-action passing. The Patriots are susceptible to the ground game, but if they stop Tomlinson and backup Michael Turner and force Rivers or No. 2 signal caller Billy Volek to win it through the air, this will be a blowout in favor of the hosts.
Chargers defense vs. Patriots offense
Linebacker Shawne Merriman is the key up front in pressuring Brady, whose receivers will be tested by Charger cornerbacks Antonio Cromartie and Quentin Jammer. If the Pats establish any kind of running game behind Laurence Maroney, it will be a long night for the Chargers. Regardless, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Donte Stallworth and tight end Ben Watson should prove too hard to handle. Moss should be especially motivated after settling for only one catch against Jacksonville and this week’s allegations that he committed battery against a woman he has known for 11 years.
Coaching/intangibles
Norv Turner deserves kudos for rallying his injury-depleted troops past the Colts last week, but Belichick and his staff have so much more experience with this much at stake. Although the weather could affect both passing games, the Pats are better suited for playing in such conditions and have too many offensive weapons.
Prediction
Even if Tomlinson, Rivers and tight end Antonio Gates were 100 percent healthy, it would be a tall order for San Diego to go into Foxboro and knock off the Pats. Tom Brady is 13-2 in the postseason, enough said. New England will roll to 18-0 and enter Super Bowl XLII as a double-digit favorite.
