Tennessee +3 @ Tampa Bay
Who’s real? Who’s fake? Two of the league’s top defenses thus far go head-to-head in Tampa Bay. The Parlay Helper likes the Titans in this one. Tampa Bay is plagued by injuries right now, so it could be an especially long day for Jeff Garcia and company. Cadillac Williams is out, Michael Pittman is out, now the Buccaneers turn to fourth-year pro Earnest Graham. Garcia has been pretty efficient this year, but he has not shown that he can carry the offense. Jon Gruden never wanted to put this team on Garcia’s shoulders, but now he might be running out of options. Look for Vince Young to put a couple of touchdowns on the board this week, after an atrocious week 4 performance.
Tennessee’s defense is now ranked fourth in the league after holding Atlanta to 13 points a week ago. The Titans had to overcome five turnovers last week, so the defense really bailed them out. They are especially tough on the pass, and Garcia will be in for a long day. Neither team has an overly impressive win, but the Titans are near perfect against the spread this season, their only ATS loss came last week when they missed by a half of a point. Take Vince Young and points, in what could be a close game.
New York Jets +3 1/2 vs. Philadelphia
Never underestimate the fact that a bad NFC team is on the road against a bad AFC team. And this is an underachieving AFC team that made the playoffs a year ago, without many personnel changes.
Of all the things that Chad Pennington does, ball security should not be something gamblers have to worry about. However, in the past two games, Pennington has thrown close to 80 passes and has thrown five interceptions over that span. Pennington is not a 40 pass quarterback. Chad has been pressing, but with his job on the line, he will go back to his old self, and look for the sure thing instead of forcing passes. Look for 22-25 passes, with Chad completing around 70% of those, and limiting turnovers. If the Jets could sustain some kind of running attack, it would open up things for Chad’s bread and butter: the play action. Don’t count on Thomas Jones or Leon Washington to have big games, but count on Chad to keep the Jets in this one and give them a good chance at winning this game. Take the Jets in the swamp.
Kansas City +3 vs. Cincinnati
Why is so much money been put on Cincinnati this season? There has been more public money on the Bengals then there has been on the Colts. There is some reason why people like betting on them, but the Parlay Helper doesn’t see it. They only have one win, and only one win against the spread. Right now they are a bad defense, with a banged up running back on the road, in a tough place to play. The Chiefs aren’t anything to write home about either, but don’t be afraid to take them this week. The Chiefs and the points.
