NFL Overtime Relies Heavily on Coin Toss

Luck Can Rule The Day. Resume Play Where The Fourth Period Ends?

Nov 3, 2008 Carroll Trosclair

The 2008 Titan-Packer game showed that the flip of a coin can be a major factor in determining an overtime winner in the National Football League. Is there a better way?

Maybe it’s time for the National Football League rules committee to reconsider the coin toss for overtime periods and just let the teams keep on playing. A major problem with the current overtime rule was shown in the tremendous defensive battle between the Tennessee Titans and the Green Bay Packers midway in the 2008 season.

With the game tied 16-16, the Titans drove to the Green Bay 30-yard line before the Packers stopped them. Tennessee Coach Jeff Fisher ran the clock down to four seconds and sent in Rob Bironas to kick a 47- yard field goal, 13 yards shorter than his best ever. He had the distance but the kick went wide and hit the goal post, sending the game into overtime.

At this point, team leaders went out to midfield, the referee flipped a coin and Tennessee won the right to receive.

That put the Green Bay defense right back on the field for 10 more plays. The Packers wilted under the pressure, the Titans drove to the 24-yard line and this time Bironas kicked a 41-yard field goal to win the game.

Coin Toss Was A Key Factor

A key factor in the game was the toss of the coin for the overtime period, forcing the Packer defense to stay on the field for two consecutive long drives. Instead of being rewarded for stopping Tennessee on the 30, the coin toss forced the Green Bay defenders back on the field.

A better test of the teams may have been to give them a normal time out, similar to what they have between the third and fourth periods, then resume the game whereever it had stopped at the end of regulation.

That would have given Green Bay a first down on its own 30-yard line, where Bironas missed the field goal.

Game Ending Strategies

The change would complicate game-ending strategies and force coaches to think beyond a long field goal, knowing they would have to give up the ball at that point if they missed. It would place more value on driving closer to the goal line as the fourth period ended. It may encourage some coaches to go for it on fourth down rather than try an unlikely field goal. It would give fans and talk show hosts more opportunities to second guess coaches.

It would decrease the chance of a team having to play defense on two straight series.

The coin toss for overtime is based on the premise that it’s a new game, when perhaps it should be a continuation of the game that the two teams have been playing for 60 minutes. That seems like a better test of strength than the flip of a coin.

The coin toss for the start of the game is balanced by giving the loser the choice of receiving or kicking in the second half. The loser of the overtime flip just gets to go on defense in the fifth period.

The situation begs the question: Should a transition from fourth to fifth period be different from a third to fourth period transition?

The copyright of the article NFL Overtime Relies Heavily on Coin Toss in Football is owned by Carroll Trosclair. Permission to republish NFL Overtime Relies Heavily on Coin Toss in print or online must be granted by the author in writing.
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Comments

Nov 2, 2008 6:30 PM
Guest :
I like college football's overtimes much more than the NFL. It is fun to watch for the fans, and I think the players and coaches would agree.
Nov 5, 2008 12:15 AM
Chris Weiss :
Interesting article. I have always hated NFL overtime, particularly if my team is on the losing end of the coin toss. While I agree with your contention that the coin toss isn't the best option, I'm not sure that picking up where the game left off is the way to go either. I think that you have to pay deference to the fact that time ran out and the game can't just continue as it was--otherwise you might as well not have a clock in a tied game. Personally, I'd like to see overtime simply played out rather than crowning the first team to score. In this way, you'd eliminate any potential advantages of coin toss because both teams would get a chance to drive and score. I realize the importance of defense, but it always feels like the team to win the coin toss has a huge advantage--just needing to drive far enough for a long field goal. Playing the clock out would level the field, imo.
Nov 9, 2008 6:00 PM
Guest :
The issue with overtime isn't the toss, it's that they only play to the first score, putting more emphasis on the toss.

The 5th period is more like the 3rd, and should start with a kickoff, as OT shouldn't change strategy at the end of regulation. The overtime period should be run it's full duration. If at the end of that period the two teams are still tied, the NFL can either extend OT or let the tie stand (contrary to what most Americans think, there's nothing wrong with a tie).
Nov 13, 2008 9:02 PM
Guest :
It is long over due for a change in this overtime rule, if they want to keep the coin toss then so be it, but there should be some changes; one idea is the team that wins the toss needs to score a touchdown, rather than just drive down the field and kick a fieldgoal. Better yet have the toss, each team has a possession, like they do in the NCAA. This will force the toss winner to at least drive to the endzone and mabe have to settle for a touchdown.
Nov 18, 2008 11:10 AM
Guest :
What pro sport is determined, essentially by a coin flip? None except the NFL. Play an 8 minute overtime quarter, beginning where the game ended, one time out each. Can you imagine the NBA giving the ball to the team that wins a coin flip at the beginning of overtime and if that team sinks a bucket, game over? Hardly?
Nov 21, 2008 11:12 AM
Guest :
in a game decided by a one score or less, this would render the gameclock useless
Dec 15, 2008 9:29 AM
Guest :
What if the nfl just gave the ball to the team that asks for worse field position? That way if you get scored on right away it's your fault for not asking for worse field position.
Dec 15, 2008 9:30 AM
Guest :
What if the nfl just gave the ball to the team that asks for worse field position? That way if you get scored on right away it's your fault for not asking for worse field position.
Dec 15, 2008 9:37 AM
Guest :
What if the nfl just gave the ball to the team that asks for worse field position? That way if you get scored on right away it's your fault for not asking for worse field position.
Feb 5, 2009 7:24 PM
Guest :
The NFL "coin flip" rule that is used to award possession of the ball at the start of overtime is unfair. The most equitable solution is also the simplest:

Skip the flip. Just keep playing. First team to score wins.

There are six reasons why this method is an improvement over the current rule:

1) More exciting games. For example, a team trailing 38-31 scores a touchdown on the last play of regulation. Under the current rules, they will kick the extra point to force overtime. The new rules will encourage them to try for two and end the game, since they will kick off if the game goes to overtime.

2) No more "playing for overtime". Assume that a team is pinned at their own 2-yard line with 1:17 remaining in the 4th quarter, and the other team has one timeout. They currently can take a knee for two or three plays to force OT. That could not occur under the new rule.

3) The defense would not need to be on the field for two consecutive possessions.

4) The players and coaches maintain control of the game. The flow of the game is not interrupted by starting over and arbitrarily giving the ball to one team.

5) The receiving team typically starts at their own 20 or 30-yard line after the kickoff under the coin flip rule. With the new rules, the team with the ball could be anywhere on the field (at midfield, on average) when overtime starts, and the game should end sooner.

6) Under current rules, the teams switch sides of the field at the end of the 5th, 6th or any subsequent quarters. Since there is no coin flip at the end of the 6th quarter, why is there one at the end of the 4th quarter?

When the overtime period starts, teams will switch sides and start with two timeouts, as they do now. "Sudden death" is the best way to play overtime – this new method is a sensible and fair way to get there.
10 Comments