How To Win a Fantasy Football Game
Fives Tips For Winning Your Fantasy Matchups During the 2007 Season
Here are five tips to help your fantasy football team win in Week One.
1. Examine and Assess the Real World Football Matchups
The most important and effective thing that a fantasy owner can do on game day is examine the matchups that his fantasy starters will be facing that day in the real football world.
For example, if one of your usual starting running backs is playing against a tough run defense like Baltimore or Chicago, you may want to consider starting your first reserve back instead because your starter is probably going to get crushed. For example, just look what those team's defenses did to some fine running backs in 2007:
Willie Parker vs. Baltimore: 2 Games, 51 yards rushing, 15 yards receiving, 0 total TDs
Willis McGahee vs. Baltimore: 1 Game, 23 yards rushing, 0 yards receiving, 0 TDs
Edgerrin James v. Chicago: 1 Game, 36 carries, 55 yards, 0 receptions, 0 TDs
Kevin Jones v. Chicago: 44 yards, 0 TDs
That's pretty brutal. But you can avoid it. If your first reserve back is playing the Indianapolis Colts, who ranked dead last against the run and gave up 173.0 yards per game, then you should think long and hard about starting him. Unless, of course, your reserve back stinks.
Look at the matchups at every position. Is your quarterback playing against a sack factory or a defense that is prone to pickoff parties? Well, then you may want to start your backup, especially if he's playing against a horrible pass defense like the Cincinnati Bengals.
2. Examine and Assess the Fantasy Matchups
This is an easy one, but it is often overlooked, by even the most savvy fantasy football players. Before each game, take a look at the make-up of your fantasy opponent's team. Does she have Peyton Manning? Are the Colts playing your defense this week in the real football world? Yes?
Well then, you better go grab another defense off the waiver wire (unless you've got Baltimore or Chicago) because if you don't, Mr. Manning is going to beat you in two ways. He's going to throw for yards and touchdowns, which will give your fantasy opponent crucial points. He is also going to be scoring against, and probably not turning the ball over to, your fantasy defense. Which means that you are also going to lose potential fantasy points. So watch out. Especially when it comes to the QB-Defense matchup.
But you can also benefit from real world matchups, provided they make sense in the fantasy football world. Suppose, once again, that you are facing a fantasy team that starts Peyton Manning as its QB. If you have Dallas Clark, even if he's a back-up to a better player, you still may want to start him because he can neutralize the lethal Manning, at least to a degree.
If Peyton throws three touchdowns and one is to Clark, then he you have taken a touchdown away from your opponent just by starting Dallas Clark. This, of course only works if your two tight ends are relatively close in production. Don't ever substitute Ben Watson for Antonio Gates, even if you are playing a fantasy team that starts Tom Brady at quarterback.
3. In the Early Weeks of the Season, Start Your Veterans
This is a hard and fast rule early in the fantasy season, but you can adjust it accordingly as the year goes on. When choosing between two players that you value equally on game day, go with the solid veterans over young players. Because even if that young fantasy player is on the verge of greatness, the odds are that he will still be a little inconsistent. Once the young guy proves he can be a consistent contributor, put the veteran on the bench.
4. Pay Some Attention to Preseason Statistics, But Not Too Much
This only applies to Week One. Preseason numbers mean almost next to nothing, unless one of your players has a limited track record. Take the Atlanta Falcons running back Jerious Norwood for example.
Because Michael Vick is out for the year (at least) and Warrick Dunn is a year older, a lot of fantasy pundits are high on Norwood. Heck, the guy did average 6.4 yards per carry last year, which is otherworldly. But he only carried the ball 99 times, about a third of what he could get this year.
So, with him, it may not be a bad idea to look at what he has done this preseason, when his role in the offense is in a state of change.
5. Don't Second Guess Yourself
Just don't. Because no matter what you do, if you start Steven Jackson over Cedric Benson, well, Benson's gonna have 175 yards and 3 TDs and Jackson will give you the big Goose Egg. It will happen. Maybe not like that, but it's impossible to make every call, every week. Make the decision, track the games, and just remember why you love fantasy footbal so much. Because you have no idea what the hell will happen next.
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