NFL NFC South 2008 Outlook

Jon Gruden's Tampa Bay Bucs May Be First to Repeat as Champs

Aug 26, 2008

With Tampa Bay, Carolina and New Orleans loaded with veterans, Atlanta may not be able to follow the division tradition of rising from last to first.

In the National Football League NFC South Division, history dictates that the team which finishes last one year will be champion the next year. It's been that way since the division was reformatted in 2002 with Atlanta, Carolina, New Orleans and Tampa Bay locked in together. The defending champion has finished last or next-to-last each year.

The Atlanta Falcons were a solid last in 2007, winning only four games and giving up 155 points more than they scored. That, according to tradition, says the Falcons will win the 2008 championship.

However, there is little other than division history to support Atlanta title hopes this year. The Falcons have a new general manager, Thomas Dimitroff; a new head coach, Mike Smith; and a newly designated franchise quarterback, Matt Ryan from the Boston College Eagles.

Falcons Lose Warrick Dunn.

The Falcons have lost or gotten rid of veterans like running back Warrick Dunn, quarterback Byron Leftwich, tight end Alge Crumpler and cornerback DeAngelo Hall. They will depend heavily upon a bunch of rookies this year. They lost two of their first three preseason games, while the Bucs, Panthers and Saints each won two of their first three.

Suite 101’s David Hunter pointed out in June that Dimitroff learned a lot about winning with the New England Patriots before taking over as Atlanta general manager last January and he began rebuilding by making some bold moves with 11 selections in the 2008 draft. His most controversial selection was taking Ryan over LSU Defensive Tackle Glenn Dorsey.

But he also drafted offensive tackle Sam Baker, wide receiver Harry Douglas, linebacker Curtis Lofton, Cornerback Chevis Jackson and 2007 Buck Buchanan Award winner Kroy Bierman from Montana State. Dimitroff shopped the free agent market for Erik Coleman from the Jets, tight end Ben Hartsock from Indianapolis, Michael Turner from San Diego, center Alex Stepanovich from Cincinnati and kicker Jason Elam from Denver.

But most experts doubt there is a 2008 winner in that crop of rookies and old timers. They are disregarding division history and predicting Atlanta will finish last again. They just can’t agree on whether Tampa Bay, Carolina or New Orleans will win the division.

The Bucs, Panthers and Saints are all trying to hold together veteran-studded teams, each of which has won at least one division title in the past five years,

Jeff Garcia Still Quarterback

As usual, Tampa Bay will rely heavily on its tough defense. Thirty-eight year old Jeff Garcia returns at quarterback and Jon Gruden, who guided the Bucs to the Super Bowl championship in 2003, will be masterminding from the bench. All pro running back Warrick Dunn is back in Tampa Bay, where he started his NFL career.

At New Orleans, they’re counting on running back Deuce McAllister to be healthy again; on Reggie Bush to have his long-awaited breakout year; and on Drew Brees to keep throwing first downs and touchdowns. Most importantly, they’re counting on the defense to eventually improve.

Carolina will depend again on wily Quarterback Jake Delhomme, wide receiver Steve Smith, running backs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, and a tough defense headed by Julius Peppers.

Like all streaks, the NFC South’s last-to-first streak has to end sometime. Atlanta’s serious rebuilding challenges give it a good chance to end in 2008.

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