First Round Fantasy Football Picks
After the Obvious Superstars Get Snatched, What to Do Next
Aug 11, 2007
The First 6 or 7 Fantasy Picks are Always Predictable. Let's face it. Ninety-nine percent of all 2007 fantasy football drafts will have early first round draft boards that look something like this:
- LaDainian Tomlinson
- Larry Johnson (click for holdout info)
- Steven Jackson
- Frank Gore (click for injury info)
- Peyton Manning
- Shaun Alexander
- Joseph Addai (a lot of people seem to like this kid)
They didn't always finish in that order, but you get the picture. These guys will very likely be the first seven picks in your draft. At least, that's what the mock drafts and fantasy football fan polls say.
Accordingly, if you are drafting 8th, 10th or even 12th, depending on your league's size, you need to know everything that you can about the next group of five players. Because if you don't, you might pick a guy like Clinton Portis, and he could kill your team. So listen up, pay attention, and take notes. Here are the best of the late first round Fantasy Football Draft Picks.
Pick Number 8. Willie Parker, Rudi Johnson, Westbrook, Reggie Bush, or Jones-Drew?
Most team owners want to lock up a strong running back with their first round pick, unless a stud quarterback like Peyton Manning (or the old Cupepper) is available at the right spot. Picks 8 through 12 offer a good crop of productive backs who should be effective again this year.
Based on prior performance, hopefully reasonable productivity projections in 2007, age, injuries and team strength, the following five running backs are all worthy of the eighth pick: Willie Parker, Rudi Johnson, Brian Westbrook, Reggie Bush and Maurice Jones-Drew.
Draft Slot Analysis
#8. Wille Parker
He could be the total package this season. He has the ability and the work ethic to get 1,400 rushing yards, 500 receiving yards and 12-15 TDs, easy.
But Parker has a sore knee that has kept him out of practice for a week. So be careful. Watch the NFL injury report @ http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/injuries every day and read the Pittsburgh Post Gazzette as often as you can. They may be found online as well.
If he is 100% ready on your draft day, take him if he is still around. You may even have to trade up a notch or two to get him. He could be worth it. The kid put up monster numbers in his first year as the number one back for the Steelers last year. That's very impressive. Unless that knee is more than just temporarily sore, Willie P. will be a Fantasy Football stallion.
# 9. Brian Westbrook
Westbrook had his best season in 2006. He rushed for 1,217 yards, caught 77 passes for 699 yards and scored 11 total touchdowns. There are a number of things in Westbrook's favor that could help him exceed those numbers in 2007.
Donovan McNabb will be back. Some think that is a curse for Westbrook because Donovan passes more than Garcia did, and Westbrook will lose carries. While that could happen, smart owners shouldn't worry about it. Andy Reid saw his team win several big games down the stretch and one huge game in the playoffs, using a much more run-friendly offense than they had ever employed.
Don't expect him to totally forget that lesson.
Plus, McNabb will throw close to 100 passes Westbrook's way, and the speed demon out of Vilanova will pick up a lot of fantasy points as a receiver.
# 10. Rudi Johnson. Johnson has been a fantasy stud for four years running. He is still only 28 years old and he plays in an offense that doesn't overuse him. So why did his yards per carry drop by .5 from 2005 to 2006. Why did he rush for 160 less yards than he gained in 2005? Is he slipping?
Well, even if he is, Rudi Johnson is still a virtual lock for 1,200 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. He's sure thing; a known entity.
# 11 - Maurice Jones Drew.
Drew rushed for 941 yards on just 166 carries, or 5.7 yards per cary, the best in the NFL among players with 100 or more carries. He also scored 13 rushing touchdowns, as many as Willie Parker, Rudi Johnson and Steven Jackson each scored. It doesn't end there. Drew caught 46 passes for 436 yards, 16 first downs and 2 touchdowns. Finally, he ran back a kick for a 93-yard touchdown. The Jaguars must get the ball to this guy at least five more times a game. They will. They will have to.
#12 Reggie Bush
A lot of people say that Bush can't be a number one back because he doesn't touch the ball enough. That's a lot of bullcrap. As a rookie, Reggie had 691 yards rushing, caught for 777 yards and scored 10 total touchdowns. That made him almost as valuable as straightforward runner who picks up 1,400 yards and ten scores. Bush is only going to get better and as he grows into the role of The Man in New Orleans, which he appears to have embraced and reflected as much in the field.
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Other Great Contenders: If you want a Quarterback, the best (after Peyton Manning) are Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb, Drew Brees, and Philip Rivers. (anyone lese you can get in the third or fourth rounds)
For Those Who Love Receivers: Harrison is still the man. Ocho Cinco is a close second, and Randy Moss moves way back up to third the list now that he's associated with Tom Brady. If he keeps it together, he could have the best year of his career.
