Just stay by the Bay baby! Fulfillment of Al Davis' prophecies on how the greatness of the Raiders remains in the future is on the way, pending they don’t relocate far away again.
The Raiders' two Oakland eras (1960-81 and 1995-present) are strikingly alike, and by staying in the East Bay, their next world championship is set to materialize in 2011 (Super Bowl 46, in early 2012). The possibility of another move will surface that year, but the commonalities of then and now are too obvious to ignore.
In the first three seasons of both Oakland epochs, 1960-62, and 95-97, the team earned shoddy records, with two coaches over both three-season sets who quickly went to the wayside. In the fourth year of both eras, a new coach came along, (Davis in ’63, Jon Gruden in ’98) as did better results. The 1963 Raiders finished 10-4 after being 1-13 a year earlier, and though they only pulled up to 8-8 in '98 after finishing eight games under .500 in ‘97, the '98 team improved more shortly after.
The 8th season of both eras (‘67 and ’02) saw the Raiders reach the Super Bowl with the best record in the AFL/AFC. Both trips involved a head coach very early in his first such NFL gig. Both squads hosted and defeated the Houston Oilers in the semi-final playoff game (the Tennessee Titans are the Oilers), and they reached the big dance only to be outscored by a "Bay" team; Green Bay in Super Bowl II and Tampa in XXXVII. And, the young coaches who got the Raiders to both title games left a year later...John Rauch after the '68 season and Bill Callahan after '03.
In the 10th season of both Oakland stints, 1969 and 2004, the Raiders employed a head coach with four letters in his first name, J-O-H-N and N-O-R-V, and six in his last M-A-D-D-E-N and T-U-R-N-E-R. The same is true of current coach, Lane Kiffin. The Raiders of the early and mid-70's enjoyed winning records galore but also endured heartbreaking losses during playoff campaigns, which the Raiders of the mid- and late-00’s have suffered in regular seasons.
The 17th season of the first era was 1976, when the Raiders clinched the best record in the NFL, and won Super Bowl XI. The 17th season of this Raider era will be 2011, when Oakland can again work yesteryear's magic.
Too good to be true? Well, there is the 16-year lease with McAfee Coliseum that the Raiders are in the second half of. The last season the Raiders have to play there is 2010 - giving them free rein to go where they like after.
There’s one option by which the team would stay Bay-close but move venues. The San Francisco 49ers have not withdrawn their 2006 suggestion/invitation for the Raiders to “share” the new stadium supposedly going up in the Santa Clara area.
Davis could renew the Coliseum lease in 2011. Some of the greenbacks he won in a 2003 lawsuit against the city of Oakland could go toward freshening up the McAfee facility.
There’s the possibility of leaving the Bay Area altogether, but the first time the Raiders tried that, their Commitment To Excellence dissipated and they ended up returning to Oakland anyway.
It may not seem so now, but the Oakland Raider mystique is slowly on its way back. The second administration has not produced nearly as many sellouts nor wins as the first, but the landmark events of both at least make the two eras cousins; since not quite twins.
So "Raider Nation,” glory appears less than five years away. A simply competitive Raider team may arrive even sooner. The Raiders won Super Bowls 11, 15, and 18. Their 35-year pattern holds they'll also win it for the years 2011, and possibly again in 2015 and 2018.
First things first - the 2011 Raiders, as long as they're still an Oakland-area franchise and no league-wide strike prevents a super bowl in early 2012, are on track to become world champions.
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